There Was Some There There

Since December 2012 we have been running the Red Maryland Polls keeping track of what’s what with the Governor’s race and various other selected races across the state of Maryland.

Many, particularly in the Legion of Whom, have derided these polls as unscientific and bereft of meaning. As we have said ourselves, we know that these polls are not scientific in nature, have results that may or may not be related to reality, and that ultimately the winner of every Red Maryland Poll is Red Maryland.
That being said, I took a look at the data today and compared the June poll that ended June 12th with yesteday’s primary results, and there were quite a few interesting pieces of information:.
  • The poll picked the winner accurately predicted 14 of 17 winners, when taking into account the districts with multiple winners;
  • Of the 12 races, the poll accurately predicted 8 of them in the exact order of finish, including the Govenor’s race.
  • The Red Maryland Poll was within 1.5% of Larry Hogan’s final vote total, 0.44% of Steve Schuh’s, and very close in many others when taking into account the distribution of undecideds.
So yes, the Red Marylad Poll is not scientific. However, it did turn out to be a more accurate predictor than even I could have imagined.

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