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A Teachable Moment

Let’s talk about polls…….again.

Adam Pagnucco made a completely ridiculous statement today: “Is O’Malley Starting to Pull Away from Ehrlich.” Now of course the obvious answer to that statement is simple: no.

Pagnucco bases his entire claim on this chart:

Now of course the part where O’Malley is “pulling away” is largely based on the data contained in two polls: the thoroughly debunked Washington Post poll and the Rasmussen Poll which was taken during in the aftermath of the thoroughly debunked Washington Post pollthe time Martin O’Malley was heavily running his attack ads against Governor Ehrlich in the Washington market unopposed.

There is no statistical evidence that Martin O’Malley is pulling away from anybody.

Am I denying that Martin O’Malley probably has a lead? No, because demographically speaking he probably does. But it is virtually impossible to consider O’Malley to be “pulling away” based on shoddy data from two polls. This race is still too close to call. It will remain so until the last vote is cast…

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