Punditing without a license…

It is still early, but looking at this from WJZ TV 13 at 10:26 PM on 2/12/08

President-Republican Primary
Total Reporting: 5%

Name Votes Pct.
x John McCAIN 7,428 55%
Mitt ROMNEY 565 4%
Mike HUCKABEE 4,507 33%
Rudy GIULIANI 171 1%
Ron PAUL 508 4%
Fred THOMPSON 139 1%
Tom TANCREDO 21 0%
Duncan HUNTER 21 0%
Alan KEYES 154 1%

I note that if those voting against McCain had concentrated on any one candidate, preferrable one still in the race, we would see 6,086 votes to his 7,428, a difference of 1,343. Not too close, but a lot closer than it is with all the others still on the ballot.

Likewise, looking at the Congressional District 1 race…
(Again from WJZ) Total Reporting: 5% at 10:36pm

Name Votes Pct.
Wayne *GILCHREST 889 29%
Joe ARMINIO 29 1%
E.J. PIPKEN 586 19%
Robert BANKS 44 1%
Andy HARRIS 1,538 50%

Trending: Candidate Survey: Chris Chaffee for US Senate

I see that, ignoring the 1% from Joe and Robert (sorry, guys), if you add the #2 and #3 vote-getters you approach the guy in #1. If it was a 2-way race between Andy and Wayne, like it was earlier, it would really be close.

The question is what would have happened to E.J.’s voters? Would they have stayed home, or gone with the social conservative (Andy) or the Eastern Shore left-leaning incumbant, Wayne?

These numbers are out of date by the time I post this, so it could be in flux.

Just pondering, Chester (Sorry if the numbers do not line-up neatly)

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